1. The Weather Forecast Lesson When the weather forecast says there’s a 70% chance of rain, no one writes a think piece about how “meteorology is flawed.” We don’t expect perfection from it. We expect direction. We know the model is probabilistic, not prophetic. It’s based on the best data available, meant to help...
1. The Era of Certainty Is Ending For the last two decades, B2B CMOs have been rewarded for looking certain. Certainty meant having the ROI slide ready, the attribution model dialed in, and a forecast that hit a single number. The job wasn’t just to lead marketing. It was to project precision. Every quarter,...
1. The Future Everyone Sees Coming We’re heading toward a world where CMOs won’t log into dashboards. They’ll ask questions. In the not-too-distant future (some might say some of this is possible now, but it doesn’t seem to work great yet), marketing leaders will have an AI assistant connected to their data warehouse, ready...
1. The AI Hype vs. the Real Pressure Scroll through LinkedIn and you’ll see endless hype about AI tools that write copy, create images, or personalize emails. Those are interesting, but they’re not the only story. The real pressure AI is putting on marketing leaders is in speed. Executives are starting to expect answers...
1. The Measurement Models Most B2B Teams Know Most B2B marketers have been trained on attribution models and funnel frameworks like the SiriusDecisions waterfall. These models were built to track lead progression through predefined stages and assign credit for conversions. Over time, they’ve been helpful for showing basic conversion rates and highlighting which campaigns...
1. The Funnel Is Broken and It’s Not Just Attribution’s Fault The traditional B2B funnel is breaking down. Legacy models like the SiriusDecisions (Forrester) waterfall promised clarity and predictability. But in today’s reality, they often deliver finger-pointing and frustration. Attribution models were supposed to solve the measurement challenge, but they’ve become a new kind...
Imagine planning your next vacation. In a deterministic world, you assume everything will go exactly as planned: no flight delays, perfect weather, no traffic to the hotel, and your kids love every minute of the itinerary. In a probabilistic world, you acknowledge some uncertainty. You build in buffer time, check weather forecasts, maybe even...
